Busting Myths about Scott Sipprelle

He is not a Republican, just a RINO
Scott Sipprelle has been a registered Republican for over 20 years. He interned for Sen. Pete Wilson after college. His family has been deeply involved in the local Republican Party in Mercer County with both his parents currently holding leadership positions with the local party organization. His issue papers available on his website (http://www.supportscott2010.com/issues/) all strongly push for limited government, free markets, and strong preference to the private sector over the government solving our problems. His proposals on Healthcare are clearly closely aligned with the Republican Party platform. He is a Republican.

Okay fine, he is a Republican, but he is just a moderate that will compromise with liberal democrats rather than fight on principle
Anyone who has listened to Scott Sipprelle speak gets the clear impression he is not interested in making friends in Congress. His rhetoric is confrontational, grounded in principle, and fiercely independent. He likes to tout that he cannot be bought. He wants to work with people in Congress that are like-minded and principled, not negotiate with "all parties at the table". He has explained he wants to build a caucus or coalition in Congress to further his policies. These are not the words or strategies of a negotiator or pragmatist. Scott Sipprelle wants to be Congressmen that takes the initiative and leads a voting bloc that will push hard for major policy changes in Washington, not just give the Republican Party as a whole, one more seat in the House. He is a candidate of principle.

He is just a wealthy Wall Street fat cat that has been part of the problem over the past few years
There is absolutely no truth to this. Scott Sipprelle is in financial services, that is no secret. But he was never been part of the problem, he spoke out against the problem. He openly criticized Wall Street leaders, particularly those at Morgan Stanley, for reckless behavior, mismanagement, and cronyism. this was in 2004-2005, LONG before the financial meltdown. Sipprelle has never implemented any of the practices that were responsible for the catastrophe that occurred almost two years ago. He left Wall Street a while ago to start his own venture fund that invests in small businesses such as a microbrewery and a small bank in Princeton, which actually creates jobs. Sipprelle's career is one that is a polar opposite to the type of behavior and practices of the reckless Wall Street we are now all slamming today. He argued for a solution before we even noticed there was a problem.

He is just trying to buy a seat in Congress to further his power and influence
If that were true, he picked the absolute worst race to enter. If one wanted to "buy" a seat in Congress (silly concept but for argument sake lets follow this through), one would pick a race that was easy to win, not one with a firmly entrenched incumbent with a 2-to-1 party registration advantage and powerful committee appointments in the House (Rush Holt). If Scott Sipprelle just wanted to be a Congressman for the power and luxury of being a politician, he would've entered the race in the 3rd District, which is very competitive or challenged one of the incumbent Republicans in the primary, rather than taking on a very safe Democrat. If he were buying a seat in Congress, he picked the most expensive and most difficult to obtain in New Jersey. Does that sound like the decision-making of a savvy business man?

He has no experience in politics, no track record
We slam career politicians and the current Congress all the time. We want change, and yet we are hesitant to support individuals with no experience. If we want change in Washington DC, new leadership and new Congressmen are needed. We can't just keep recycling the same candidates, politicians, and party leaders. That is precisely why Washington is as defective as it is. New names, new faces, and new ideas need to be injected. That means finding quality candidates with NO EXPERIENCE or very little experience.

Scott Sipprelle is the right candidate for the 12th District and the right candidate for the Republican Party. He should win the primary in June, but he faces a big hill to climb in November. It is time for Republicans in New Jersey and in the 12th District to shed their apathy, pessimism, and cynicim about politics and elections. They need to show up in massive numbers in November to give Sipprelle the win and flip a district that everyone assumes is safe. In 2010, no district is safe and if we want to take back the House and Senate, we need to target districts that most would say are not competitive or are indeed "safe".

If we were to just focus on the "low lying fruit" of competitive swing districts, that number is much smaller and we are basically thinking small. Yes, we will win most of these races but it may not be enough to retake the House and definitely will not be enough to retake the Senate. We need to open up as many competitive districts as possible. That means uphill battles, and grassroots efforts in areas long thought politically dormant due to one party's dominance. It won't be easy, and some of the incumbents will win anyway, but some will not. It is that number of safe seats that surprisingly flip, that will give us the margin needed to retake the House and pad our majority.

I will be writing similar posts on Jon Runyan, Anna Little, and other candidates in the future. Hopefully they are just as high quality as Sipprelle is. I will have to learn that for myself.

More on the Tea Party: Not Radicals

I am frankly surprised at the misconceptions and total lack of knowledge that New Jerseyans have of the Tea Party. It is clear the media, journalists, and others have successfully written them off as radicals, racists, and revolutionaries. And you have bought it.

The Tea Party Platform
The Tea Party is a loose confederation of conservatives, libertarians, concerned citizens, unaffiliated voters, conservative democrats, and independents. These groups may have their own top issues or most important agenda items but there are three main common themes:

1. Limited Government (in both power and dollars)
2. Individual Freedom (protections for religion, speech, right to bare arms, states' rights)
3. Free markets (strong rejection of socialism)

Gallup surveys showed the Tea Party's demographics are fairly mainstream. In other words, they are not All-White, All-rich, All-Christian, All-Republican, or All anything.

So really what makes them tick? The massive growth in government spending, the national debt, the increase in government power in areas of the banking sector, finance, healthcare, student loans, and automobiles. This political event alone is what awakened them. And I say awakened for a reason.

Gallup has also consistently shown this is a center-right country, 40% identify themselves as conservatives and other polls show that 50% or more have fiscally conservative views. Only about 26-29% of people identify themselves as liberal. And yet the Democrats won 255 of 435 seats in the House, and 60 of the 100 seats of the Senate. Obama won with 53% of the vote. How is this possible? Why is it that the Republicans don't dominate American politics???

The Awakening of the Right Wing
Like I said, this conservative side has only recently awakened. There is a segment of conservatives that don't vote because they regard both parties as essentially the same (and have a good case for it). However, the political battles and divergence of policies between the two parties in the last year and a half has changed that sentiment and "awakened" this segment. In other words, Obama's left-wing agenda awakened them. Had he practiced some moderation in his policy proposals, this movement might've remained asleep.

Another segment of the Tea Partiers simply don't vote because they don't feel their vote really makes a difference. Most of this type are not politically active at all. They have these beliefs but would rather keep to themselves and keep their beliefs to themselves. They have been convinced by televisions, movies, and other media that their beliefs are radical fringe right-wing ideas and that they would be ridiculed if they got more vocal of them.

Another segment is the far-right wing. They are a very small group, probably about 5-8% of the total population. They are militias, Christian Fundamentalists, most of them probably racist, and are in many respects anarchists. They may align themselves with the Tea Party, but a vast majority of the other groups in the Tea Party regard these people as crazy, just like the rest of the country.

The final segment, the largest, are disenchanted Republicans and fiscal conservatives that felt their party failed them and did not vote in 2008. This group is the most politically active in general, vote often, but this changed due to Republican failures in 2005-2007. They stopped identifying themselves as Republicans and expressed utter frustration with their party and the country as a whole. this segment was likely to awaken regardless of how leftist Obama's agenda was. It is the combination of this group with the others that give the Tea Party tremendous potential. They are reaching into populations of non-voters and even unregistered voters. Not to mention the fact that Independents are steadily realizing that the Tea Party reflects their ideas in regards to the deficit and government spending.

So, are they racist? Maybe 1 in 20 has white supremacist beliefs, AT THE MOST.
Are they anarchists? No, not even close.
Do they advocate overthrow of the government? No
Are they Christian Evangelicals or Fundamentalists? Many of them are, but none of the issues they are demonstrating for are related to religious or social issues. Sometimes yes, but like I said government power and spending are at the top of the list.

And it is important to note, the Tea Party is steadily growing. Gallup and other surveys show that more Americans consider themselves part of the movement in comparison to three months ago.

So what is their objective?
The slogan most often heard at Tea Parties is "Remember in November". A political protest and demonstration that wants to increase energy AND VOTE. What a bunch of psychos right? They are supporting candidates, donating money, hell they are voting in record numbers! MY GOD, they are going to tear this country down!!! They are critical of a Black President! Surely they are racists!!! By that logic, a Black President is infallible.

A Cautionary Note for Northeasterners
Most Americans do not live within 100 miles of New York or Washington. Most Americans do not get their news from the Big 3, or CNN, or MSNBC. Most Americans are not afraid of guns. Most Americans are not afraid of God or Christians. Whatever sophistication or education level you have achieved, remember you are in the minority and if you fail to take movements like the Tea Party seriously, you will remain in the minority in a sort of hyper-urbanized bubble of the East Coast from DC up to Boston. You are a minority and I think its time you do a MUCH better job understanding the rest of the country and their beliefs because in my experience in New Jersey there is a poor level of understanding.

Self-identified Republicans and moderate conservatives in the Northeast seem to be somewhat elitist and arrogant similar to liberal democrats. That must change. Not only Republicans but Northeasterners in general because last I checked the Census projects Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania will be losing electoral votes to Texas, Utah, and Georgia.

Its time to make a better effort to understand the rest of the country. Because there are more of them than you, and in November, more of them will win election to the House and Senate while Democrats will likely still dominate the Northeast.

New Jersey 6th: Can Pallone be defeated?

Short answer is no. Pallone has won the last four elections by more than 65%. Democrats have almost a 3-to-1 edge in voter registration. Overall voter registration is a bit low as well. The gerrymandered district is 16% black and encompasses democratic stronghold New Brunswick. Pallone also has a war chest of roughly $4 million, more than enough to scare away challengers. In Presidential Elections, only Bush in 2004 managed to get above 40%, with 43%.

Diane Gooch, Monmouth County GOP Vice Chair and Highlands mayor Anna Little are running. Other candidates include Fabrizio Bivona, and Shannon Wright. Gooch seems to be the favorite thanks to her party support and personal wealth. she might be able to match Pallone in resources but can she overcome the tremendous voter registration advantage?

As of yet there is nothing of a campaign or a message that can be analyzed to see if Gooch can pull off what Scott Brown pulled off in Massachusetts. Given the below average voter turnout in this district and its strong democratic lean, Gooch would have to run a 5 star campaign full-time and be a charismatic superstar.

I don't think it matters whoever wins the nomination. Pallone is safe in my opinion and see no reason to think otherwise.

Halfacre Poll a joke

A poll has been released by the Halfacre Campaign showing that Halfacre beats Holt in a theoretical matchip 43-41, while Sipprelle loses 20-55. But look closely at the poll question:


In a head to head ballot test between Holt and “a Republican who, as Mayor, cut spending and lowered property taxes three years in a row,” Holt trailed by five percentage points, 46%-41%. Against “a Republican who made millions on Wall Street, and who contributed some of his money to Democrats like Chuck Schumer and five House Democrats as recently as June of 2009,” Holt has a huge lead: 55%-20%.

Not even close to objective or scientific. If this is the best Halfacre has, its truly sad. It is bad enough he has spent the last two months directly attacking Sipprelle on his contributions to democrats and his career on Wall Street, he is now putting out goofy poll numbers. My question is why such a great Republican felt it necessary to commit several posts on his campaign website about a candidate that had JUST JOINED THE RACE. Barely a week after Sipprelle announced, Halfacre committed most of the space on his site to Sipprelle rather than himself.

Halfacre, even with those conservative credentials as mayor, does not inspire much confidence as far as his integrity, character, and skills as a campaigner. If anything he has focused the attention of Republicans on his opponent, which was a bad choice since many are finding Sipprelle is a solid Republican and a very solid candidate.

After today I am going to look more into other New Jersey races. I think I have said enough about this one.

12th Congressional District

Rush Holt is the current incumbent for the 12th District of New Jersey. He is rated the most liberal member of the House. His legislative accomplishments are so thin its more likely he is just a loyal vote for other liberals. In fact, he has voted with his party on major issues 98% of the time.

Is he vulnerable? Well the 12th district has been gerrymandered to give democrats a considerable edge in the district. There are roughly 140,000 registered Democrats versus 80,000 registered Republicans in the district. Holt has consistently won with over 60% of the vote.

However, this is the year of anti-incumbent sentiment and anti-liberal sentiment. Governor Christie defeated Corzine in the 12th district just 4 months ago. It is possible. A couple things have to happen. Democrats must remain disappointed and unenthusiastic to the point that less than 40% actually show up. I think only 35% of them actually showed in the governor's election (just my estimate). Second, Republicans need to come out en mass. Unfortunately they never have due to apathy. Why vote when they are so outnumbered and have never gotten close to competing with Rush Holt? Also the Republican Party has lost a lot of support in the past 5 years. Finally, independents need to break for the Republcian candidate about 2-to-1.

So the NJ 12th needs a Scott Brown and a horrible incumbent. As liberal as Holt is, he is probably not as unpopular as Corzine. Corzine had high negatives. He is within reach if Republicans unite and independents show up strong. Currently Scott Sipprelle, Mike Halfacre, and David Corsi are running for the Republican nomination. I have made no secret that I like Sipprelle but am not necessarily averse to Halfacre and Corsi. But from what I have seen, Halfacre and Corsi don't have the necessary campaign skills to win in June or November. They can't seem to raise money or obtain significant local party support. Halfacre in particular had 8 months with no primary opponents and failed to raise $100,000 and his local party support is eroding fast. Sipprelle is self-financing but has also managed to gain substantial local party support.

A lot has been made of the local Tea Parties but not all Tea Parties are created equal. Some are small, disorganized, and really aren't significant grassroots groups. Five groups have supposedly endorsed Mike Halfacre. But so far it seems it will not translate to getting the line in Middlesex County. If the Tea Partiers are mostly centered in Monmouth, Halfacre could still win the nomination since most Republicans in the district live in the Monmouth and eastern Middlesex areas. But my take is that these Tea Parties are either not that large or not that enamored with Halfacre.

We will all know more after the Middlesex County Republican Convention in March 27th.