When the situation is dire, do not fear change

The situation in the United States is becoming apparent to all Americans. Polls and surveys show a growing fear and apprehension of the direction of this country and a dim view of the future. Well, the next logical step is to decide what to do about the situation. How do we change course? How do we get pointed in the right direction?

I have noticed a pattern among Northeasterners. Actually, this is something I have noticed in plenty of areas but seems to be prevalent among Northeastern media personalities, commentators, politicians, bloggers and regular people. In their minds, the political spectrum has two distinct fields, the reasonable/mainstream and the radical. There are radical left wingers and radical right wingers but it is in the center is where they always want to be. They may in fact not hold moderate or "centrist" beliefs, but they don't want to be identified as being on the fringe.

In conversation, many people feel they need to make clear their beliefs and positions are NOT extreme. They condition their discussions with "I don't think ____, but ______" and then follow it with a straw man explanation of what they think the radicals are pushing. When the discussion is over, they have effectively watered down their position or the explanation of their position to the point where it means nothing.

Why is there such a high premium on avoiding what is judged radical? It is as if many people want to be at the very top of the bell curve and are scratching and clawing their way to get to that point. But why? Are they so self-conscious about their politics? Are they really that afraid of being labeled a radical or tea bagger or a socialist/communist?

This dash to the top of the bell curve tends to halt or drawback reform in either direction. It becomes a manifestation of the fear of change. They don't want to go to far in either direction. It doesn't matter which direction, but going to far one way will be bad. Aggressive turns can cause the ship to ebb and flow, causing discomfort, even destabilization. But this makes it impossible to avoid the massive iceberg ahead. When there are serious systemic flaws in a system, when the State is on the verge of financial collapse, when the situation is dire, this fear of change can paralyze a society.

Governor Christie is one who is demanding radical reform and change in a State that is afraid of it. But the problems are real and they are large. Small, incremental steps can stave off disaster in most situations but not in this one. In the country as a whole, we are on an unsustainable path that could lead to the country's financial collapse in 8-12 years. Serious solutions implemented by serious people will be needed to stop it.

For those dying to stay within the mainstream, understand this, in a crisis such as today, prudence dictates that we introduce radical change and reform. We are way too close to the cliff to simply "slow down", "turn gently", or implement "consensus" solutions. It won't be long before the only consensus will be one of utter despair.

It has been said desperate times call for desperate measures. The mainstream believes these are desperate times but is unwilling to support desperate measures. We need to come to our senses and fast. It is time to abandon the self-conscious fear of being the "radical" in your social circle. In the end, it will be "radicals" that will save this country from ruin.

Jon Runyan kicks off campaign in 3rd District

Former offensive tackle Jon Runyan begins his campaign against Democratic incumbent John Adler today down in the 3rd Congressional District.

The 3rd is likely one of only three potentially competitive districts in New Jersey. The voter registration count places Republicans and Democrats close to one another, which means independent votes will likely decide the outcome. Polls also show that Republicans are more enthusiastic these days and may turnout out in much higher numbers than registered democrats. That could also give Runyan the edge.

Republicans held the seat for a while with victories of 58-64% (a guy named Saxton). Bush won the district with 51% in 2004. McCain (in a bad year) lost it by only four points. Given the shift in popular opinion, I think this district is perfect for a switch.

Runyan needs to make sure he keeps the Republican base excited, and presents himself as the anti-Pelosi/Adler. So far, it appears he will do precisely that. In this area, I don't think fundraising will be a factor either. In fact, unless Runyan killed a hooker at some point in his life or there are pictures of him stealing lunch money from children, there are no other significant factors on this race.

Is Runyan the right candidate? He is still mostly an unknown so hard to tell. But if he develops into a serviceable Republican canidate, he will win. He does not need to be Scott Brown to win. Here, average is sufficient to win.

12th Congressional District

Rush Holt is the current incumbent for the 12th District of New Jersey. He is rated the most liberal member of the House. His legislative accomplishments are so thin its more likely he is just a loyal vote for other liberals. In fact, he has voted with his party on major issues 98% of the time.

Is he vulnerable? Well the 12th district has been gerrymandered to give democrats a considerable edge in the district. There are roughly 140,000 registered Democrats versus 80,000 registered Republicans in the district. Holt has consistently won with over 60% of the vote.

However, this is the year of anti-incumbent sentiment and anti-liberal sentiment. Governor Christie defeated Corzine in the 12th district just 4 months ago. It is possible. A couple things have to happen. Democrats must remain disappointed and unenthusiastic to the point that less than 40% actually show up. I think only 35% of them actually showed in the governor's election (just my estimate). Second, Republicans need to come out en mass. Unfortunately they never have due to apathy. Why vote when they are so outnumbered and have never gotten close to competing with Rush Holt? Also the Republican Party has lost a lot of support in the past 5 years. Finally, independents need to break for the Republcian candidate about 2-to-1.

So the NJ 12th needs a Scott Brown and a horrible incumbent. As liberal as Holt is, he is probably not as unpopular as Corzine. Corzine had high negatives. He is within reach if Republicans unite and independents show up strong. Currently Scott Sipprelle, Mike Halfacre, and David Corsi are running for the Republican nomination. I have made no secret that I like Sipprelle but am not necessarily averse to Halfacre and Corsi. But from what I have seen, Halfacre and Corsi don't have the necessary campaign skills to win in June or November. They can't seem to raise money or obtain significant local party support. Halfacre in particular had 8 months with no primary opponents and failed to raise $100,000 and his local party support is eroding fast. Sipprelle is self-financing but has also managed to gain substantial local party support.

A lot has been made of the local Tea Parties but not all Tea Parties are created equal. Some are small, disorganized, and really aren't significant grassroots groups. Five groups have supposedly endorsed Mike Halfacre. But so far it seems it will not translate to getting the line in Middlesex County. If the Tea Partiers are mostly centered in Monmouth, Halfacre could still win the nomination since most Republicans in the district live in the Monmouth and eastern Middlesex areas. But my take is that these Tea Parties are either not that large or not that enamored with Halfacre.

We will all know more after the Middlesex County Republican Convention in March 27th.

New to New Jersey

My name is Fox and have recently moved to Princeton from Chicago, Illinois. I am a conservative, which is strange because I have moved from Obamaland to one of the vaunted ivory towers of the East Coast. Over the past four or five years I have learned to move among the liberals, talk like them, and even look like them. Learning their secrets, their weaknesses, and in rare cases their strengths.

I attended law school in the city and passed the IL bar exam last Summer. Preparing for that exam is something I would not wish on my worse enemies. I started to become active in political campaigns in 2009, helping Dan Proft run for governor (he lost the primary...badly). Luckily another conservative by the name of Bill Brady won and will now challenge the half-wit Pat Quinn in November. Illinois is not Massachusetts however. Independents and conservatives are not quite as energized to kick the democratic leadership out of Springfield (capital of Illinois in case you didn't know).

It looks like New Jersey is ahead of the game. Chris Christie defeated a weak incumbent and it appears a couple democratic Congressmen here might be in trouble. In Princeton, I have decided to help Scott Sipprelle in his campaign in the 12th District. It is strongly democratic but Christie won here so it is completely doable to kick out the incumbent Rush Holt, who is the most liberal member of the Congress.

In my short time I have met some good people here, many through my work with Scott but also in other areas. It is my hope to meet more people here, and help in other campaigns as well. Hopefully we can find more Christies to win back a couple seats and get Pelosi fired as Speaker.

This blog is intended to convey my thoughts and feelings regarding politics, philosophy, law, life, and current events in New Jersey. It is from the prospective of a law school graduate with a background in national security and foreign policy, as well as a person who grew up in the suburbs of Chicago, then lived there. It is a great great city run by corrupt, incompetent, criminals. You may think New Jersey is bad, but in Chicago, corruption is an art form.

There is also always talk of national issues and elections, which I usually talk about on my other blog, Fox and the Lion. See that if your interested. Until then, if I can touch the life of just one person with this blog...then it is clear I should've stuck with being a lawyer.