Congressional Races: No competition in 2010

Every analyst both online and in the print media seems to believe 10 out of the 13 Congressional races are not competitive and the incumbent is safe. Garrett, Lance, and Adler appear to be the only realistic competitive races. And recent developments suggest Garrett and Lance are probably going to win with only minor trouble.

Have things changed so little in New Jersey? With Christie's victory, the unpopularity of the democratic agenda, and a recession only 1 Congressional seat is going to change hands? It seems that on the federal level, New Jersey has not changed.

The reason is simple, gerrymandering. The State Legislature and Governor draw the district lines and have intentionally drawn them so that each one encloses the ardent supporters of each Congressmen. Every look at a map of the districts? Its bizarre to say the least. As long as this practice is continued, the state government working with the Congressmen of the state will continue to draw districts to protect incumbents and minimize the number of competitive districts or "swing districts". That means that even if people start voting differently or start shifting, in the end, there will be only one new Congressmen out of thirteen.

Want to change this? The focus of the New Jersey Republican Party should be on the State Legislature in hopes of ending gerrymandering and increasing competition. Democrats still control both houses in the legislature and will certainly attempt to re-draw the districts for 2012 to favor their incumbents and minimize chances for Republican pickups. I am unfamiliar with New Jersey law so I am not sure Christie can veto the legislature's drawing of the districts or what the process would be for that. Gerrymandering can only favor Republicans if they won majorities in the two houses in 2009 or can in 2019. Not exactly good chances there. This state does lean-left and so generally democrats will have the edge in absolute terms year in-year out.

Until then, any progress in increasing Republican support and membership in the state will all be for nought. The Democrats will simply look at the election results and then will determine how best to hide the new Republican gains in already Republican Congressional districts, keeping their party buddies safe.