New Jersey 6th: Can Pallone be defeated?

Short answer is no. Pallone has won the last four elections by more than 65%. Democrats have almost a 3-to-1 edge in voter registration. Overall voter registration is a bit low as well. The gerrymandered district is 16% black and encompasses democratic stronghold New Brunswick. Pallone also has a war chest of roughly $4 million, more than enough to scare away challengers. In Presidential Elections, only Bush in 2004 managed to get above 40%, with 43%.

Diane Gooch, Monmouth County GOP Vice Chair and Highlands mayor Anna Little are running. Other candidates include Fabrizio Bivona, and Shannon Wright. Gooch seems to be the favorite thanks to her party support and personal wealth. she might be able to match Pallone in resources but can she overcome the tremendous voter registration advantage?

As of yet there is nothing of a campaign or a message that can be analyzed to see if Gooch can pull off what Scott Brown pulled off in Massachusetts. Given the below average voter turnout in this district and its strong democratic lean, Gooch would have to run a 5 star campaign full-time and be a charismatic superstar.

I don't think it matters whoever wins the nomination. Pallone is safe in my opinion and see no reason to think otherwise.