Jon Runyan kicks off campaign in 3rd District

Former offensive tackle Jon Runyan begins his campaign against Democratic incumbent John Adler today down in the 3rd Congressional District.

The 3rd is likely one of only three potentially competitive districts in New Jersey. The voter registration count places Republicans and Democrats close to one another, which means independent votes will likely decide the outcome. Polls also show that Republicans are more enthusiastic these days and may turnout out in much higher numbers than registered democrats. That could also give Runyan the edge.

Republicans held the seat for a while with victories of 58-64% (a guy named Saxton). Bush won the district with 51% in 2004. McCain (in a bad year) lost it by only four points. Given the shift in popular opinion, I think this district is perfect for a switch.

Runyan needs to make sure he keeps the Republican base excited, and presents himself as the anti-Pelosi/Adler. So far, it appears he will do precisely that. In this area, I don't think fundraising will be a factor either. In fact, unless Runyan killed a hooker at some point in his life or there are pictures of him stealing lunch money from children, there are no other significant factors on this race.

Is Runyan the right candidate? He is still mostly an unknown so hard to tell. But if he develops into a serviceable Republican canidate, he will win. He does not need to be Scott Brown to win. Here, average is sufficient to win.